1 in 5 Airbnb bookings gets cancelled

Between July and September, guests booked 16% more nights on Airbnb than a year earlier. And in those same months, almost 1 in 5 bookings was cancelled.

Airbnb's chief financial officer gave the figure on November 5, when she presented the results: cancellations are at around 19% of bookings, 3 points more than a year ago. And for the travel industry, she says, that is a very good figure. In her opinion. I disagree.

The cause of this rise in cancellations is called "Reserve Now, Pay Later". Airbnb started offering it in the United States in August 2025. In February it extended it to every country, for listings with a Flexible or Moderate policy, and this summer it added the Limited and Firm policies.

With this option the guest books without paying, and Airbnb charges them shortly before the listing's free cancellation period ends. Until that day, the guest can cancel without having paid a cent. This way of booking can already be used on more than 40% of the value of everything booked on Airbnb. How much is really booked this way is not known: the last figure Airbnb gave, for January to March 2026, was around 20% of booking value.

Careful: the number is misleading. What gets booked is not the same as what gets "consumed" and finally paid for.

Either way, Airbnb seems to have found that even though more bookings are cancelled, so many new ones come in that it ends up selling more nights than it would without this option.

And to hosts, Airbnb says they lose nothing, because the guest pays before the free cancellation period ends, so "hosts have time to secure another booking even if a guest cancels". :-)

Back in June I explained why platforms want cancelling to be easy. What is new is that Airbnb now gives the cancellation figure, and calls it good. For Airbnb.

Is there time to sell the night again? It depends on your policy

What matters is when the free cancellation period ends, and that depends on each listing's cancellation policy. These are Airbnb's deadlines for stays shorter than 28 nights:

With Flexible, a guest who booked in September for December pays a day or two before arriving. If they cancel then, the night is free again at the last minute, and with a day or two left there is little you can do.

With Firm, Airbnb charges the guest a month before arrival, and a month is enough time to sell the night again. That is why I always recommend the strictest policy the platform allows. On Airbnb, for almost every listing, that is Firm (Strict is by invitation only).

What changes if you manage 20 apartments

An Airbnb booking is not safe on the day it comes in. It is safe on the day the guest pays, when the free cancellation period ends. Until then, some of the nights your calendar shows as booked can become free again. That is why we keep recommending, now with more reason, the strictest cancellation policy you can set, against the advice of Airbnb and Booking. Why? We explain it in this article.

Among our customers, cancellations are below 6% of bookings. A year ago they were 3%, but the successive changes that Airbnb and Booking have imposed on cancellation policies have pushed the figure up.

• The further ahead you let guests book, the longer they go without paying, and the longer your calendar stays blocked for a "possible" booking.
• As a property manager, remember that the owner sees a full calendar and counts on that money. Better that you explain it now. Otherwise they will find out when they see gaps on dates that were booked.
• Look at cancellations by platform and by listing. The Airbnb average says little about your apartments.

And when a night becomes free again, review its price. Today's demand is not the demand of three months ago, when it was booked.

What comes next

Airbnb's chief financial officer, Ellie Mertz, also said that July, August and September were the months when this option added the most nights for Airbnb, and that from October to December it will add fewer. My reading: guests keep booking further ahead, but now they are starting to cancel part of what they booked in the summer.

If you want us to review the cancellation policy and the cancellations of each of your listings, request a demo.

A very good figure, says Airbnb. For Airbnb, sure.